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Summer 2013 JPAM Preview

great_depressionCream-Skimming, Parking and Other Intended and Unintended Effects of High-Powered, Performance-Based Contracts
Pierre Koning and Carolyn J. Heinrich

As performance-based contracting in social welfare services continues to expand, concerns about potential unintended effects are also growing. The authors analyze the incentive effects of high-powered, performance-based contracts and their implications for program outcomes using panel data on Dutch cohorts of unemployed and disabled workers that were assigned to private social welfare providers in 2002 to 2005. Through explicit measures of selection into the programs, evidence of cream skimming and other gaming activities on the part of providers is found, but with little impact of these activities on program outcomes.

moneyFiscal Rules and the Composition of Government Expenditures in OECD Countries
Momi Dahan and Michel Strawczynski

Since the 1990s many OECD countries have adopted fiscal rules. After the adoption of these rules, the ratio of social transfers to government consumption substantially declined, and it recovered following the global economic crisis. Using a sample of 22 OECD countries, the authors found a negative effect of fiscal rules on the ratio of social transfers to government consumption. This finding implies that fiscal rules are effective, but not necessarily binding.

hmo_formsHas the Shift to Managed Care Reduced Medicaid Expenditures? Evidence From State and Local-Level Mandates
Mark Duggan and Tamara Hayford

From 1991 to 2009, the fraction of Medicaid recipients enrolled in HMOs and other forms of Medicaid managed care (MMC) increased from 11 percent to 71 percent. This increase was largely driven by state and local mandates that required most Medicaid recipients to enroll in an MMC plan. Theoretically, it is ambiguous whether the shift from fee-for-service into managed care would lead to an increase or a reduction in Medicaid spending.

us_mapState Unemployment Insurance Trust Solvency and Benefit Generosity
Daniel L. Smith and Jeffrey B. Wenger

This paper employs panel estimators with data on the 50 American states for the years 1963 to 2006 to test the relationship between Unemployment Insurance (UI) trust fund solvency and UI benefit generosity. The authors found that both average and maximum weekly UI benefit amounts, as ratios to the average weekly wage, are higher in states and in years with more highly solvent trust funds.

forest_rangerTechnical Management in an Age of Openness: The Political, Public, and Environmental Forest Ranger
Sarah E. Anderson, Heather E. Hodges and Terry L. Anderson

Modern bureaucracy faces trade-offs between public and congressional input and agency expertise. The U.S. Forest Service offers an opportunity to quantitatively analyze whether an agency that is required to be more open to the public and congressional input will be forced to ignore its technical expertise in managing resources. This study uses data on 83,000 hazardous fuels reduction activities conducted by the Forest Service from 2001 to 2011.

teaching_classTeacher Pension Systems, the Composition of the Teaching Workforce, and Teacher Quality
Cory Koedel, Michael Podgursky and Shishan Shi

Teacher pension systems concentrate retirements within a narrow range of the career cycle by penalizing individuals who separate too soon or remain employed too long. The penalties result in the retention of some teachers who would otherwise choose to leave, and the premature exit of some teachers who would otherwise choose to stay.

landmark_buildingAn Experimental Test of the Expectancy-Disconfirmation Theory of Citizen Satisfaction
Gregg G. Van Ryzin

A number of prior studies have found evidence for the expectancy-disconfirmation theory of citizen satisfaction with public services, which holds that citizens judge public services not only on experienced service quality but also on an implicit comparison of service quality with prior expectations. But the evidence to date has been based on surveys (observational studies) and on subjective measures of expectations and performance, which are likely endogenous. Thus, the present study aimed to test the expectancy-disconfirmation theory of citizen satisfaction with public services using an experimental method.

pentagon_9-11Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decision-making
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller

This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well as losses. Since homeland security decision makers tend to be risk-averse because of the catastrophic or dire nature of the hazard or event, utility theory and Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to propagate uncertainties in calculations of net present value, expected utility, and probabilities of net benefit.

teacherWould a Value-Added System of Retention Improve the Distribution of Teacher Quality? A Simulation of Alternative Policies
Marcus A. Winters and Joshua M. Cowen

In this paper, the authors consider several features of teacher-retention policies based on value-added measures of effectiveness under a variety of empirically grounded rules and parameters. The authors consider the effects of policy design by varying the standard above which satisfactory teachers are expected to perform.

world_atlasInternational Conference News: Trends in Migration and Migration Policy
Douglas J. Besharov, Mark H. Lopez and Melissa Siegel

Worldwide, more than 215 million people have left the countries of their birth and moved elsewhere. These migrants make up more than three percent of the world’s population. Another 700 million adults say they would migrate to another country if they could, according to polls conducted by Gallup.

JPAM Doctoral Dissertation Listing 2012

 

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